Oscars 2024 predictions

As we approach the Oscars 2024 scheduled for Sunday, and after thorough coverage of this year’s nominees, it’s time to present our predictions for the 96th edition.

The momentum seems to favor “Oppenheimer,” leading with an impressive 13 nominations and emerging as the frontrunner in numerous categories, notably for Best Picture. Thus, the event might unfold with a predictable outcome.

Nevertheless, amidst the anticipation of inevitable winners, let’s hope for some unexpected twists during the ceremony. Many films nominated this year truly merit recognition with their own Golden Baldie. We remain optimistic that the Oscar outcomes may surprise us…

Who will claim the most prestigious awards of the night, and who truly deserves them? We offer our “Will Wins” (predicted winners) and “Should Wins” (our preferred choices) for each category.

Let’s see how accurate our predictions turn out to be and whether “Oppenheimer” dominates the night, overshadowing contenders like Nolan’s companion piece “Barbie,” possibly to the detriment of “Poor Things.”

Below are our Oscar predictions across all categories:

BEST PICTURE

Nominees:

• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer

Initially, it appeared that this year’s main contender for the top prize would be a tight competition between “Oppenheimer” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” However, Christopher Nolan’s film has now emerged as the clear favorite. His intricate and haunting biopic appears to be the logical choice, although it wouldn’t be unwelcome if “Past Lives” or “The Zone of Interest” caused an upset. Additionally, “The Holdovers” has garnered some late momentum as a warmer, feel-good option. Nevertheless, it seems like Nolan’s moment, and “Oppenheimer” appears poised to dominate the entire evening. Brace yourselves for fervent Nolan enthusiasts enthusiastically celebrating their master’s victory for weeks to come. Admittedly, it’s well-deserved recognition for Nolan, given his consistent efforts leading up to this point. Nonetheless, the outcome feels somewhat predictable by now.

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Preferred Winner: The Zone of Interest

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees:

• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
• Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
• Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
• Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

This year boasts a formidable lineup of directing nominees, but Christopher Nolan appears to have a firm grip on this category as well. It’s a well-deserved recognition considering “Oppenheimer” stands out as both a narrative and technical masterpiece. While there’s a slim chance Martin Scorsese could pose as a dark horse contender, and we hold great admiration for Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” and Glazer’s meticulous direction in “The Zone of Interest,” it seems destined to be Nolan’s night.

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

Preferred Winner: Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

BEST ACTOR

Nominees:

• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
• Bradley Cooper – Maestro
• Colman Domingo – Rustin
• Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

The competition for Best Actor appears to have two strong contenders. On one side, there’s Cillian Murphy, delivering what could be considered the most substantial role of his film career.

On the other side stands Paul Giamatti, a long-standing favorite among critics, whose performance in “The Holdovers” is exceptionally crafted. However, we believe it will be Murphy and his compelling portrayal in “Oppenheimer” who will emerge victorious.

He has previously clinched acting awards at prestigious events like the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAGs, indicating a strong likelihood of winning in this highly competitive category. Let’s also acknowledge the remarkable performance by Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro.”

Despite facing unjust criticism online during the awards season, “Maestro” remains a superbly executed biopic. Many still rue the fact that Rami Malek won the prize in 2019 for “Bohemian Rhapsody,” when Cooper deserved recognition for “A Star Is Born.” Hang in there, Bradley. Your moment will come.

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Preferred Winner: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees:

• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Emma Stone – Poor Things
• Annette Bening – Nyad
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro

This category is poised to be the highlight of the evening, and much like the Best Actor category, it boils down to a tight competition between two nominees: Emma Stone, who clinched the Golden Globe (Comedy), Critics Choice Award, and BAFTA for “Poor Things,” and Lily Gladstone, who secured the Globe (Drama) and the SAG Award for “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Initially, the momentum seemed to favor Stone, but when Gladstone was nominated for Best Actress instead of Best Supporting Actress, the dynamics shifted. Gladstone makes history as the first Native American to be nominated for Best Actress, delivering an unforgettable performance in Scorsese’s epic. However, Stone’s portrayal is daring and inventive.

Additionally, Sandra Hüller represents Europe’s hopes on Sunday, while Annette Bening, nominated five times without a win, remains a contender. Hollywood often gravitates towards honoring longstanding contributions, so Bening shouldn’t be discounted entirely. Nevertheless, this closely contested race is likely to tilt in Gladstone’s favor, especially considering it’s her first nomination, whereas Stone already boasts three nominations and a win. While Stone may deserve the victory, the revamped Academy voters may opt to recognize new talent.

Predicted Winner: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Preferred Winner: Emma Stone – Poor Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees:

• Robert Downey Jr – Oppenheimer
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
• Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
• Ryan Gosling – Barbie

While there might be unexpected outcomes in the leading acting categories, the supporting ones appear to be all but certain this year. Among the male contenders, Robert Downey Jr. has consistently held the lead throughout this awards season for his portrayal of Oppenheimer’s political adversary, Lewis Strauss. It’s an outstanding performance, and from a Hollywood perspective, his potential victory aligns with optics.

His journey, overcoming past challenges and reemerging as Marvel’s iconic figure, resonates with the Academy’s appreciation for redemption narratives. Kudos also to Mark Ruffalo, who delivered a delightful performance on the set of “Poor Things” and would have been a strong contender in any other year.

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Preferred Winner: Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees:

• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
• America Ferrara – Barbie
• Jodie Foster – Nyad

Similar to Downey Jr., this category seems to be a foregone conclusion. Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s portrayal of a grieving chef in Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” has garnered almost every award leading up to the Oscars. This prediction is the easiest to make, and it’s highly likely that she will (deservedly) receive another accolade to add to her impressive collection on Sunday.

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Preferred Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees:

• Justine Triet and Arthur Harari – Anatomy of a Fall
• David Hemingson – The Holdovers
• Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer – Maestro
• Samy Burch – May December
• Celine Song – Past Lives

This year’s lineup is exceptionally strong, with a record-breaking three female writers nominated in the category. While all nominees are deserving, our prediction leans towards “Anatomy of a Fall” clinching its sole Oscar in this category. This is due to the film’s omission as France’s international entry, despite being the previous year’s Palme d’Or winner, which could have made it a frontrunner in that selection. Consequently, Best Original Screenplay appears to be its best chance at an Oscar. If successful, it would mark the first French screenplay to win since Claude Lelouch’s “A Man and A Woman” in 1966.

As for the other contenders, the beloved “The Holdovers,” with its blend of touching and comedic elements, stands as the main competitor to “Anatomy of a Fall.” It’s regrettable that “May December” will likely leave empty-handed, as it deserved better recognition. Nevertheless, we anticipate Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s screenplay to emerge victorious, particularly for its expertly crafted, emotionally charged argument scenes.

Predicted Winner: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari – Anatomy of a Fall

Preferred Winner: Samy Burch – May December